TSLA Fear & Greed Index
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Signs that Tesla’s humanoid robot is moving from pilot builds to volume production. Every signal is marked by how solid it is: confirmed by Tesla, reported by credible outlets or analysts, or not seen yet.
Eight steps that usually come before volume production, in roughly the order they happen. Supplier audits and parts deliveries tend to show up first, before Tesla says anything about output.
Tesla has never published an Optimus production count. The figures below are the best outside readings, set against the capacity Tesla has designed for. The scale is logarithmic: each gridline is ten times the one before.
Timing and volume targets Tesla or Elon Musk set for Optimus, oldest first, and what has happened since.
Tesla doesn’t name its Optimus suppliers. These companies are reported to make parts for it, or are tipped by analysts. Most of their revenue comes from cars and air conditioning, so a robot order shows up first in audits, deliveries and new plants rather than in their quarterly results.
Optimus’s joint motors use neodymium magnets, and China makes almost all of them. Its export licences are the biggest outside risk to a fast ramp.
Source: China’s customs data, as reported by SMM, Reuters and others. The table names the source for each month.
The actuators in Optimus’s arms use permanent magnets. Musk said in April 2025 that Optimus was affected by China’s export curbs because of them. Adamas Intelligence
Tianfeng Securities estimates 2 to 4 kg of neodymium magnets per humanoid robot. A million robots a year would need 2,000 to 4,000 tonnes, about 3.5% to 7% of the 57,392 tonnes China exported in 2025. Stockhead
China made 94% of the world’s permanent magnets in 2024 and refined 91% of the rare earths used in them, according to Oxford Economics. Oxford Economics
China’s customs figures show how many magnets leave the country each month, a quick read on whether licences are flowing.
Dates that could bring news on Optimus or on magnet supply. Expected dates can move.